"We often tell multiple narratives about a single conflict, which depend on whether we zoom in on it as an example of local tension or zoom out from it and consider it as part of a geopolitical plot these are not necessarily incompatible," explains coauthor Eddie Lee, a postdoctoral fellow at CSH.
"It was important for us to find a quantitative and bias-free way to see if there were any correlations between different violent events, just by looking at the data." "Our main question was: what is a conflict? How can we define it?," says CSH scientist Niraj Kushwaha, one of the coauthors of the study published in the latest issue of PNAS Nexus. To address the challenge of understanding how violent events spread, a team at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) created a mathematical method that transforms raw data on armed conflicts into meaningful clusters by detecting causal links. In Somalia, populations remain at risk amidst conflict and attacks perpetrated by armed groups, particularly Al-Shabaab. In Nigeria, violence, particularly from Boko Haram, has escalated in the past few years. There are, however, many more that take place within the borders of a single state. Some armed conflicts occur between states, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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